Sunday, February 27, 2011

Films of 2010: Top 10

I personally felt like 2010 was a bad year in film. Compared to other years, there were nowhere near as many high-quality films at the top of the list. However, the ones that are good are very good. That leads us to the top 10. Everything that has been listed previously is good, just not damn good. This top 10 is much better than everything else I've seen this year. I just felt the need to clarify that there is a substantial difference between 10th place on my list and 11th.

Obviously, the links to Youtube clips below contain spoilers.

Director: David O. Russell
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Melissa Leo

The Fighter takes one of the most worn-out genres in film history, the boxing movie, and somehow manages to not only seem fresh but also original and exciting. By employing simple but genius techniques such as period-relevant camera filters and word-for-word color commentary, as well as downplaying the dramatic aspects usually accentuated in the fight scenes, the actual boxing shots are interesting and engaging. The film also shines outside of the ring. Instead of focusing solely on a generic love story that motivates the protagonists will to win, The Fighter also looks at the family and community motivations that help drive athletes in the modern era. Another great boxing film, Million Dollar Baby, also gave screen time to this idea, although it wasn't as direct as in The Fighter. Throw in one of the best acting ensembles of the year, including Christian Bale's timeless portrayal of Dicky Eklund, and it's not hard to understand all the rave reviews this film has garnered.

Best Moment: I don't know. Something with Christian Bale.

Director: Gaspar Noe
Starring: Nathaniel Brown, Paz de la Huerta, Cyril Roy

Oh, you. To describe Enter the Void is to describe probably the most bizarre film experience I've ever endured. Void is unique in almost every conceivable way. There's the first person camera perspective, complete with camera shutters to simulate realistic eye blinking. There's the linear-nonlinear storyline, where the things shown on screen happen in chronological order, and yet the main character's life is explained very non-chronologically. Hell, even the opening credits are impressively creative. And yet, having said all of this, there are very, very few people that I would wholeheartedly recommend this film to. Even with my high praises, I was still disgusted at some parts. And yet, this film is probably the one that pops into my head the most of any on this list. Void is the definition of creativity and to condemn such ambition is almost an endorsement of the sequel-driven, formulaic bologna that filmgoers are subjected to throughout the year.

Best Moment: The bathroom drug bust.

Director: Matt Reeves
Starring: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Chloe Moretz, Richard Jenkins

Let Me In is a hard sell. When you read a synopsis of the story, it sounds kind of like Twilight with little kids. It's also a rated R film starring kids. It's also a remake. There's a lot of excuses as to why almost nobody saw this film. Having said all of that, this is easily the best horror film I've seen since the movie this remake is based on, Let The Right One In. A story about a vampire child not being able to love should be nowhere near this good, and yet it works perfectly. The film is elevated by its star performances. Together, Kodi Smit-McPhee and Chloe Moretz exhibit more chemistry than almost any adult film pairing this year. The real star, though, is Matt Reeves. Tasked with remaking LTROI, he did the nearly impossible by creating a film that is just as good, if not better than the original, and not just by converting the language from Swedish to English. Reeves has put his own personal stamp on this franchise, and the rare scenes that are changed in the remake are actually the best parts of the film. Please, leave your biases behind and give Let Me In a chance.

Best Moment: The car crash scene.

Director: David Fincher
Starring: Jesse Eisenberg, Andrew Garfield, Justin Timberlake, Armie Hammer

The Social Network is, for lack of a better way to say it, surprisingly great. When I first heard that David Fincher was directing a film about Facebook, I was appalled. Then I saw The Social Network. Somehow Fincher took the very dry concept of Facebook and managed to make a film that was not only very much a Fincher film but also one of his best works to date (I still prefer Seven and Zodiac myself, but that's just me). Fincher leaves his mark everywhere on this film, but he is not the only star here. The acting in Social Network is well above par, especially from the supporting cast. Justin Timberlake finally proves to me that he can actually act, showing a wide array of emotions in his limited time on screen. I can say almost the exact same thing for Andrew Garfield.  I kind of feel like I'm just listing a bunch of flash points about this film without actually giving opinion, but I truly feel like, outside of number one, this is the most well-made film of the year. It's not my favorite, but it's one of them.

Best Moment: There are a lot. I guess I'll go with the scene where the guys meet Sean Parker.


Director: Christopher Nolan
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ellen Page, Marion Cotillard

The film that I had the highest expectations for going in to it was Inception. The trailers promised a mindbending science-fiction thrill ride through the mind, and that god damn horn was enough to make me wet my pants every time I heard it.  And, for the most part, it succeeded. The dream worlds that Nolan creates are spectacular. Allowing the dream physics to be manipulated by the outside world was a genius idea and Nolan explored it wonderfully with the tumbling hotel room and zero gravity scenes. The dream where Dom trains Ariadne is another great scene. When the dream started collapsing and everything around them began to explode, I actually got chills. I blame most of those chills on the sound, which is an underappreciated but essential piece of Inception. Turn your speakers up when you watch this film and you won't be disappointed. I'll leave out all of the positive things about Inception because to list everything would take a while. If you see this film, don't expect perfection, because no film will be able to live up to that expectation. Inception is, however, the best action film of this century, as far as I can recall.

Best Moment: The rotating hallway. 

Director: David Michod
Starring: James Frecheville, Ben Mendelsohn, Guy Pearce, Jacki Weaver



Director: Lee Unkrich
Starring: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen

Toy Story 3 worried me to death before it came out. The first two films are some of my favorite animated films of all time. Because of that I was very afraid that TS3 was just going to be a cash-in with good animation. I am so glad that I once again underestimated the genius of Pixar. Lee Unkrich was smart enough to understand that the fans of the first two Toy Story films were now at the high school and collegiate level, and he was bold enough to tailor his story about toys towards that crowd. This is easily the most mature Toy Story in the franchise. The film touches very directly on heavy themes such as loss, tyranny, and even death. The story leads to some extremely sad, emotional moments, including one of the rare cry moments for me during 2010. In fact, there are a couple scenes near the end that I'm not even sure I would be comfortable letting my child watch because they are so depressing. Then again, this is really an adult film in toys' clothing. Continuing a more mature, complex, and insanely good trend set by films like Up and WALL-E, Toy Story 3 completes one of the greatest trilogies of all time with pure ballsy storytelling and emotional impact.

Best Moment: The ending. So damn sad.


Director: Edgar Wright
Starring: Michael Cera, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Kieran Culkin

Director: Danny Boyle
Starring: James Franco

Director: Darren Aronofsky
Starring: Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Vincent Cassel

Friday, February 18, 2011

The Worst of 2010

For a temporary break from the great films of 2010, I thought I'd take a quick look at those films from last year that, well, just didn't live up to my expectations. I phrase my sentence in that manner because I doubt (for the most part) that most of these are actually the worst films of 2010. I watched every film on this list (except the very worst one) because I honestly thought they were going to be good. There is a very high likelihood that those films from last year which I intentionally skipped are worse than most of these. I just didn't see them; therefore, they aren't on the list. A short list of critically-panned films that you won't see on the list includes:

The Last Airbender
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Vampires Suck
Sex and the City 2
Gulliver's Travels
Killers
Jonah Hex
Little Fockers
Saw 3D
Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore

Again, I fully expect that these films are probably worse than the vast majority of those actually on the list. This is just a list of the worst films that I personally sat through. Enough stalling. Let's stumble through the shit!

Okay, I had originally decided to justify and explain my reasons for disliking these films. However, I was forced to sit through all this badness, so they don't deserve my justifications. I know almost one person per film who disagrees with me about them. Most of them also at least hover around the fresh/rotten cutoff on Rotten Tomatoes. What I mean by this is that, if you disagree with me, it doesn't matter because I already know they aren't universally hated.

Satirical Warning: Most of these pictures aren't actually from their movies, and if they are, the captions aren't.

First, a few honorable mentions:

Kick-Ass - I know, that's not a picture from Kick-Ass. But you'll probably have more fun watching Nic Cage getting destroyed by bees on Youtube for a couple hours than you would if you watched Kick-Ass.

Tron Legacy - The killer soundtrack and the extremely sexy Olivia Wilde are not enough to save one of the silliest stories of the year.

Dinner for Schmucks - Schmucks wasn't actually terrible, but the overall premise was pretty mean-spirited and the supporting characters were extremely shallow.

Machete - The  blunt and annoying message behind the movie didn't help matters, and neither did Michelle Rodriguez playing the only role she ever plays, ever.

Splice - Kudos to the writers for taking one of the coolest premises of the year and ruining it with one of the lamest third acts of the year.

Alice in Wonderland - I don't really have much to say here. I just didn't like it. You saw Johnny Depp's dance, right?

Predators - Just like Splice, Predators started off exciting and fun and then turned into a big, fat, crumbled up wad of cheese.

And now... the bottom 10.

10. Dogtooth (foreign film)
Director: Giorgos Lanthimos
Starring: Christos Stergioglou, Aggelika Papoulia, Mary Tsoni
Not Really: About dog's teeth.

Director: Oliver Stone
Starring: Shia LaBeouf, Michael Douglas, Carey Mulligan
Carey Mulligan: Is cute though.

Director: Nicolas Winding Refn
Starring: Mads Mikkelsen, Maarten Stevenson
Pictured: My face after this film was over.

7. Waiting for Superman (documentary film)
Director: Davis Guggenheim
Would've Been Awesome If: The film was actually about Superman.

Director: Casey Affleck
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Casey Affleck
Great Movie If: You enjoy watching films where people sit around their house, rap terribly, and smoke weed.

Director: Michael Winterbottom
Starring: Casey Affleck, Kate Hudson, Jessica Alba
Do You Enjoy Beating Women? - Good. Check out The Killer Inside Me. For everyone else... please skip this junk.

4. Wild Grass (foreign film)
Director: Alain Resnais
Starring: Sabine Azema, Andre Dussollier
Pictured: Actual wild grass, which is probably more exciting to look at than the film I saw.

Director: Paul Greengrass
Starring: Matt Damon, Greg Kinnear, Brendan Gleeson
Matt Damon: Maaaaatt Daaaaamon. Also Green Zone sucked. 

Director: Mike Newell
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Gemma Arterton, Ben Kingsley, Alfred Molina
Minority Movies: Why do you always cast all the secondary characters with actors from the minority in question, but the leads go to white folks?

Director: Dennis Dugan
Starring: Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, Rob Schneider, David Spade
Dear David Spade and Rob Schneider: Please stop making movies. As soon as possible. You're already millionaires. We don't need to have children, family members, or significant others forcing us to see you "act". We've been through enough already. Have some compassion.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Best Films of 2010: 11-20

Here's part two of my top films of 2010 list, covering films 11-20. In a better year, these movies would probably fall somewhere between 35 and 50, but in 2010, all of these films are top 20 material. Not to say that they are bad; they just aren't as good as the 11-20 list for 2009. Anywho, enough about why they aren't good: let's get to why you need to see these films. Small spoiler alerts, maybe.

Director: Debra Granik
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, John Hawkes

I think I need to see this film again. I say that because it is a very slow-moving film and at the time I found it a bit boring. Even through the tedium, however, I saw a beautiful film about a very strong-willed woman looking for answers because that was just what she had to do. Now, the film has been nominated for Best Picture along with tons of other awards and some other friends have told me how much they loved it. Maybe I just wasn't in the right mood when I saw this the first time. Either way, for anyone with a crazy family, annoying relatives, or a disappointing parent, you will easily be able to relate to this film, and the ending, even if you are able to see it coming (I couldn't), is very intense and heartbreaking.

Best Moment: The climax at the lake.

Director: Anton Corbijn
Starring: George Clooney, Paolo Bonacelli, Thekla Reuten

Perhaps the most divisive film in the top 20. One of my friends went with me to see this film and he hated almost every moment of it. In fact, while watching it, I actually thought to myself, I bet he hates this movie. I completely understand why, too. The film moves at a snail's pace and very little is actually accomplished during the film. There are a lot of scenes of Clooney just sitting in his hotel room or driving around town. I can understand the frustration of those who went into this movie expecting a James Bond-type of secret agent film. However, I thought the film was very well done. The slow pacing makes the action sequences (the few that there are) even more intense and explosive. The plot, which focused more on the loneliness of his life as an assassin than the fight scenes and shootouts that usually populate these films, felt much more realistic than any Bond film I've ever seen. The cinematography was beautiful, including a mesmerizing, orange-lit scene through a tunnel and some great classical architecture. Clooney makes the film though. From his dedication to the meticulous nature of his character to the emotional depth he conveys through just a couple of gestures, I expected him to get much more Oscar buzz than he eventually did. Oh well. I really liked The American. It doesn't matter if anyone else did.

Best Moment: Probably the opening scene in the cabin.

Director: Martin Scorsese
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Ben Kingsley, Michelle Williams

Many people found Shutter Island to be predictable and sub-par in comparison to the other works of Martin Scorsese's amazing career. I can agree with both of those statements. However, neither of them are enough to make Shutter Island a bad film. In fact, in a genre of film populated almost exclusively with sequels and cheap scares, I found Shutter to be refreshing and far above average. If nothing else, Scorsese picked the perfect cast for his film. Leonardo DiCaprio gives a very underrated emotional and confused performance that was only forgotten because he was the star of another mindbending film later in the year. Mark Ruffalo gives his second-best performance of the year, but that's not a bad thing: Ruffalo is one of the best and most overlooked actors currently working. Is this one of Scorsese's top films? Well, no. But when Shutter Island is considered to be one of your least-impressive films, that's not any fault of the film itself: that just proves how much of a badass Scorsese is.

Best Moment: Any of the dream scenes. Extremely well shot.

Director: Noah Baumbach
Starring: Ben Stiller, Greta Gerwig, Rhys Ifans

Noah Baumbach is a love-him-or-hate-him type of director. He's one of the premier directors in the indie film world, having directed films such as Kicking and Screaming (not the Will Ferrell one) and The Squid and the Whale. One of his trademarks is that the characters in his films are extremely unlikeable, and the title character in Greenberg definitely continues this trend. Ben Stiller's Greenberg is an obnoxious, pretentious, self-centered man-child. He doesn't know how to function correctly with people and his life is circling the drain. He doesn't even redeem himself by the end of the film. However, Stiller manages to infuse just enough charm into his lines to make them tolerable. Gerwig plays the role of the fragile, trusting girlfriend perfectly. Baumbach was also smart enough to add lots of comedy in between Greenberg's arrogance. If you watch this film, you will almost certainly dislike the character of Greenberg. That doesn't make Greenberg a bad film, though.

Best Moment: The party at the end.

Director: Jon Favreau
Starring: Robert Downey Jr., Mickey Rourke, Sam Rockwell, Don Cheadle, Scarlett Johansson

Another film that a lot of people were disappointed with. Whereas the first film focused entirely on character development and had virtually no action, the second film was filled to the brim with action and distanced itself from character development. I still enjoyed the first film better, but I loved Iron Man 2. My main problem with the original Iron Man film was that it only felt like half of a film. Almost the entire film was taken up with telling Tony Stark's backstory, explaining why he needed his power cell, and giving him an excuse to build the first suit. The only real action happened exclusively in the last 10-15 minutes of the film. With this in mind, I feel like Iron Man 2 is more of an extension of the first film than an actual sequel. When viewed this way, the lack of character development is somewhat forgivable and the action sequences are much more enjoyable. It also didn't hurt that this film, just like the first, had an amazing cast. Just look up there. That is pure talent. And also Scarlett Johansson.

Best Moment: Scarlett Johansson.

Director: Lisa Cholodenko
Starring: Annette Bening, Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo, Mia Wasikowska

I kind of feel the same way about The Kids Are All Right that I felt about Brokeback Mountain a few years ago: I feel like a lot of the hype with these films is that they are about gay couples. I don't mean to imply that either of these are bad films. It just seems like, if you were to substitute a straight couple into these films, they would lose a lot of their power. That is my main problem with Kids, and that is why it's only my 15th favorite film of the year. Beyond that, this movie is great. The script is funny, even if it doesn't make sense sometimes, and most of the characters seem realistic. Every main character in the film is fleshed out successfully and (mostly) without bias, allowing you to sympathize and dislike the characters based on your own judgments. I also enjoyed the overall message about gay couples; even in 2011, millions of Americans don't grasp the simple concept that gay people are almost exactly the same as straight people, and Kids should be commended for spreading that message. It should also be commended for its acting. Julianne Moore and Mark Ruffalo are outstanding. Ruffalo's role is even more impressive when you think about the fact that his character (a sperm donor for a gay couple who meets his offspring 18 years later) has really never been done before and he was basically asked to wing it.

Best Moment: When Ruffalo's character first meets the kids.

14. Cyrus
Directors: The Duplass Brothers
Starring: John C. Reilly, Jonah Hill, Marisa Tomei

The Duplass brothers have helped popularize a relatively new film technique called mumblecore. It would be hard to quickly summarize here, but if you see one of their films, you will immediately notice a few oddities that define mumblecore, such as the fluidity of the dialogue the constant refocusing of the camera. In Cyrus, this technique helps create a feeling of intrusion into the lives of these everyday characters similar to a documentary. I don't mean to say that the film is like a documentary, but that the technique adds a layer of realism to the film that a normal filming style wouldn't have. Cyrus succeeds outside of mumblecore filmmaking, though. The story follows the blossoming of a relationship between Reilly's and Tomei's characters. Their romance is actually one of the most believable and touching of the year, aided greatly by the talents of the two actors. Reilly, one of the most underrated actors around (I realize I say this a lot, but dammit, there's a lot of underappreciated actors), perfectly embodies the role of the silly, nervous bachelor, and Tomei plays the understanding caregiver wonderfully as well. If you're looking for a unique romantic comedy to watch by yourself or with a date, Cyrus is probably the best choice of the year.

Best Moment: Probably the scene at the party near the beginning.

13. Buried
Director: Rodrigo Cortes
Starring: Ryan Reynolds

It's hard to explain why Buried is so good without spoiling the movie. When I tell people that Buried takes place completely within the confines of a coffin that is buried underground, they are immediately turned off. How can a movie that takes place within a coffin be entertaining? Well, the main reason is Ryan Reynolds. Without him, there would be no Buried, because without him, there would be no one on screen at all. Reynolds could have easily overacted his part and ruined this fragile film. After all, the entire film revolves around the things that he says and the emotions that he expresses. Instead, he filled the part with surprising depth, especially because almost all of his dialogue was (logically) devoted to conversations about trying to escape. This depth was strengthened by the script, which allowed Reynolds to convey emotions mostly through facial expressions instead of self-talk (which always comes off as unnatural in films). This little paragraph explanation probably doesn't really help you decide whether you should check out Buried or not. Like I said, it's very hard to explain why it's so good. Maybe this clip will help?

Best Moment: The climax.

Director: Tom Hooper
Starring: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce

Is The King's Speech predictable? Extremely. Is it overrated? Definitely. Should it win the Oscar for Best Picture? Absolutely not. Is it still one of the best films of the year? Undoubtedly. In fact, The King's Speech may be the most technically well-done film of the year. All of the main actors have been at least nominated for an Oscar before and they very obviously know what they are doing. The director and cinematographer seem to have meticulously planned out every shot and scene, and the screenwriter knows exactly where everything needs to go. My main problem with The King's Speech, actually, is all that planning: everything appears far too neat, unrealistic, and cinematic. I prefer my films with (wait for the foreshadow) a bit of grit on them and with scripts that allow the director to try something new. But, again, that doesn't make The King's Speech bad in any way. Colin Firth will undoubtedly win the Best Actor Oscar this year for a role that is almost as great as the one he should've won for last year. His relationship with Geoffrey Rush's character is believable and touching, and the speech that is mentioned in the title is far more intense than it should be. I just can't get over how restrained it is.

Best Moment: The King's speech!

Directors: The Coen Brothers
Starring: Hailee Steinfeld, Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin

Another instant classic from the Coen brothers, and also their most conventional. True Grit is a remake of an old John Wayne film, and for the most part, it follows its source material very closely. Having said that, you should still check out this remake. The Coen brothers bring their own unique style to all of their films; in True Grit, their style is intentionally toned down, but it still shines through in spots such as the opening credits. Jeff Bridges churns out yet another great performance, filling Wayne's shoes admirably. In fact, I think he did even better than Wayne. While Wayne's Rooster Cogburn came off as a smartass, lazy gunslinger, Bridges's came off with all those traits as well as an overall disinterest in life. Hailee Steinfeld also outperformed her counterpart, Kim Darby, in the role of Mattie Ross. Steinfeld embodied Ross's self-assured, candid attitude perfectly. The true star of the film, though, is Roger Deakins. Deakins's cinematography is some of the most beautiful I've seen in years and will almost certainly win the Oscar this year. 

Best Moment: The guy hanging in the tree.

Top 10: Coming soon.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Best Films of 2010: Honorable Mention, Part 1

I decided that I've waited long enough to begin my top films of 2010 list, so I figured tonight was as good of a time to start as any. However, I want to preface this list with a shorter list of films that I haven't gotten a chance to watch yet that I believe have potential to at least my honorable mention list. I reserve the right to add any of these to my top films list:

Get Low
Never Let Me Go
Four Lions
Hereafter
I Love You Phillip Morris
Rabbit Hole
Blue Valentine
The Illusionist

...and any others that turn out to be better than expected. Having said that, this list will be a bit shorter than my Best of 2009 because there are fewer films worth mentioning. Anyways, here's the list. The honorable mentions are numbered this time too, with a few thoughts. Spoilers (maybe)!

Director: Jake Scott
Starring: James Gandolfini, Kristen Stewart, Melissa Leo

If Kristen Stewart could get away from those silly Twilight films, she might turn into a great actress one day.

31. Agora
Director: Alejandro Amenabar
Starring: Rachel Weisz, Max Minghella

Rachel Weisz is so sexy. That is all.

Director: Nicole Holofcener
Starring: Catherine Keener, Oliver Platt, Amanda Peet

Kind of a mean premise, but the film pulls it off (mostly) successfully.

29. Salt
Director: Phillip Noyce
Starring: Angelina Jolie, Liev Schreiber, Chiwetel Ejiofor

It makes little sense, but there's usually one movie a year that I enjoy in spite of how stupid it is. This year, it's Salt.

Director: Sam Taylor Wood
Starring: Aaron Johnson, Kristin Scott Thomas, Anne-Marie Duff

Interesting note: although this film is about John Lennon's early days, the filmmakers were not allowed to actually say the word "Beatles" at any time in the film.

Director: Ben Affleck
Starring: Ben Affleck, Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Rebecca Hall

Not as good as Affleck's first directed film, Gone Baby Gone, but still worth seeing.

Director: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Starring: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Ryan, John Ortiz, Daphne Rubin-Vega

Tip: Philip Seymour Hoffman, please don't ever sport dreadlocks again.

Director: Niels Arden Opley
Starring: Noomi Rapace, Michael Nyqvist

Warning: This is a foreign language film. There are also scenes of rape.

Director: Adam McKay
Starring: Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg

It's probably too early to say that Will Ferrell is back, but this movie was much better than I expected.

Director: Nicholas Stoller
Starring: Russell Brand, Jonah Hill, Sean Combs

Even with one of the worst titles of the year, Greek ended up being hilarious. Also, along with The Other Guys, it has one of the best "drunk daze" scenes in film history.

22. Howl
Directors: Jeffrey Friedman and Rob Epstein
Starring: James Franco, David Strathairn, Jon Hamm, Jeff Daniels

Interestingly, James Franco's "other" film of 2010 explores the life of the "other" guy from the Beat Generation. The film is presented in a very original way.

Director: Shawn Levy
Starring: Steve Carell, Tina Fey, Mark Wahlberg, James Franco

Another fish-out-of-water comedy. I like this genre though, and the talents of Carell and Fey elevate Date Night from generic comedy to pretty damn funny.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

2011 Oscar Predictions

These are my predictions for the Oscar winners at this year's ceremony (coming up in like 3 weeks). First I'll say who I think should win, then I'll say who will win, possible dark horse candidates, and one or two non-nominees who should've gotten a nomination. These aren't reviews, by the way, just quick picks.

Best Picture:
What Should Win: Black Swan, directed by Darren Aronofsky. Easily the best film of the year.
What Will Probably Win: The King's Speech, directed by Tom Hooper.
Another Contender: The Social Network, directed by David Fincher.
What Should've Been Nominated: Animal Kingdom instead of Winter's Bone, but that's nitpicking. For once, the Best Picture nominees are all really damn good.

Best Director:
Who Should Win: Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan.
Who Will Probably Win: Whoever wins Best Picture, meaning Tom Hooper for The King's Speech.
Another Contender: Being the other Best Picture frontrunner, David Fincher for The Social Network.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan for Inception and Danny Boyle for 127 Hours instead of Tom Hooper for The King's Speech and the Coen brothers for True Grit.

Best Actor:
Who Should Win: James Franco as Aron Ralston in 127 Hours. Easily.
Who Will Probably Win: Colin Firth as King George VI in The King's Speech. This one is almost a lock.
Another Contender: Nobody, really. If anyone can steal it away, it's probably Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn in True Grit.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Again, not really anyone. The only one remotely close is probably George Clooney as Jack in The American instead of Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network.

Best Actress:
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in Black Swan. Again, easily.
Who Will Probably Win: Portman. This one is almost a lock, too, and one of the few I'll be happy about.
Another Contender: The only person with a shot to rob her is  Annette Bening as Nic Allgood in The Kids Are All Right.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in True Grit instead of Bening (of the nominees I've seen). Yes, she's nominated in the Supporting Actress category, but that's a joke: she's got more screen time than anyone else in the entire film.

Best Supporting Actor:
Who Should Win: Christian Bale as Dicky Eklund in The Fighter.
Who Will Probably Win: Bale. Yet again this one is pretty locked down.
Another Contender: Geoffrey Rush has a decent chance at an upset as Lionel Logue in The King's Speech.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Andrew Garfield as Eduardo Saverin in The Social Network instead of Jeremy Renner as Gem Coughlin in The Town.

Best Supporting Actress:
Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in True Grit.
Who Will Probably Win: Steinfeld, but this is easily the most wide open acting award of the night.
Other Contenders: Melissa Leo as Alice Ward and Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in The Fighter and Jacki Weaver as Smurf Cody in Animal Kingdom
Who Should've Been Nominated: Either Julianne Moore as Jules Allgood in The Kids Are All Right or Mila Kunis as Lily in Black Swan instead of Helena Bonham Carter as Queen Elizabeth in The King's Speech. I have no idea why this role has gotten so much awards praise.

Best Original Screenplay:
What Should Win: Inception, written by Christopher Nolan.
What Will Probably Win: This one is a toss-up, but I am going to go with my gut: Inception.
Other Contenders: All of them. Another Year, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, and The King's Speech.
What Should've Been Nominated: Black Swan, written by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, and John McLaughlin instead of The Kids Are All Right. I honestly have no idea how it wasn't nominated.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What Should Win: The Social Network, written by Aaron Sorkin.
What Will Probably Win: Sorkin. This one's in the bag.
Other Contenders: Nothing. Seriously, nothing else has even a remote chance at this.
What Should've Been Nominated: Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, written by Edgar Wright, instead of True Grit, written by the Coen brothers. Both very well written, I just prefer the other four nominees and SPvTW to Grit.

Best Animated Feature:
What Should Win: Toy Story 3, directed by Lee Unkrich.
What Will Probably Win: Toy Story 3 has this completely locked up.
Other Contenders: Neither of the other two have a shot.
What Should've Been Nominated: Well, I've only seen one really good animated film this year, and it's already nominated. So I guess no others should've been.

Best Original Score:
What Should Win: Trent Reznor's The Social Network.
What Will Probably Win: The Social Network.
Other Contenders: Hans Zimmer's Inception has a shot, but I don't see it happening.
What Should've Been Nominated: Again, nothing really stands out.

Best Cinematography:
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins for True Grit.
Who Will Probably Win: Deakins.
Other Contenders: Wally Pfister for Inception and Jeff Cronenweth for The Social Network both have an outside shot at an upset, but it's not going to happen for either of them.
Who Should've Been Nominated: Anthony Dod Mantle for 127 Hours instead of Danny Cohen for The King's Speech. Personally, Mantle's cinematography is better than everything that actually got a nomination.

As for the rest of the nominations, either I have not seen enough of the nominees to make a good judgment or I don't think I'm qualified enough to judge which is better. For those, I'm just giving my predictions for the real winners based on awards buzz and my own guessworthy talent.

Best Foreign Language Film: Incendies (Canada), directed by Denis Villeneuve.
Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job, directed by Charles Ferguson.
Best Documentary Short: Killing in the Name, directed by Jed Rothstein.
Best Live Action Short: Na Wewe, directed by Ivan Goldschmidt.
Best Animated Short: Day & Night, directed by Teddy Newton.
Best Original Song: "If I Rise" by A.R. Rahman, Rollo Armstrong, and Dido, from 127 Hours.
Best Sound Editing: Richard King for Inception.
Best Sound Mixing: Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, and Ed Novick for Inception.
Best Art Direction: Robert Stromberg and Karen O'Hara for Alice in Wonderland.
Best Makeup: Adrien Morot for Barney's Version.
Best Costume Design: Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland.
Best Film Editing: Andrew Weisblum for Black Swan.
Best Visual Effects: Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, and Peter Bebb for Inception.

Now let's see how good I do.